Forecast and Analyze the Revenue of Biman Bangladesh Airlines Limited Based on ARIMA Model
Sumaiya Rahman
Department of Statistics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
Shohel Ahmed *
Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
Tahrima Faruq
Department of Statistics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: As a public limited company in Bangladesh, Biman Bangladesh Airlines Limited has been struggling to establish itself as a profitable company after taking many initiatives. The work presented in this article constitutes a contribution to modeling and forecasting the financial position
of Biman Bangladesh by using a time series approach.
Methodology: The article demonstrates how the income and expenditure data could be utilized to forecast future profit scenarios by developing several Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series with the regression model. Utilizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we identify the best fit ARIMA model and use this to forecast the financial scenarios for the subsequent years. To successfully build the model we use R Programming.
Results and Conclusion: The model predicts future values of income, expenditure and using these two, the profit or loss scenarios can be used for forecasting from year 2018 to 2025. The results forecast that Income would increase or decrease in contest of the Expenditure. As a result Biman Bangladesh may have face significant losses in the years 2020, 2021 and 2024.
Keywords: Forecasting, Time series, ARIMA model, revenue analysis.